After a Slow Start, Sierra Forecast Finally Shows Signs of a Snowy Turnaround

Winter has gotten off to a slow and frustrating start in the Sierra Nevada, with December bringing little to no natural snowfall and ski resorts relying heavily on snowmaking to stay open ahead of the holidays. But forecasters say there are growing signs that conditions could finally turn around before the year ends.

So far in the 2026 water year, which began October 1, the Central Sierra Snow Lab at Soda Springs has recorded just 22 inches of snow—about 43% of the median for this point in the season. The most recent measurable snowfall came on November 20 and added just over an inch. While disappointing, forecasters note that slow starts happen roughly once every four years and don’t necessarily predict a bad winter overall.

Several Tahoe-area ski resorts, including Boreal, Palisades Tahoe, and Northstar, are open with limited beginner terrain, while others like Sugar Bowl and Diamond Peak have yet to open. Resort officials say they’re not overly concerned, pointing out that most of the Sierra’s snowfall typically arrives between December and February, with January often doing the heavy lifting.

Long-range weather models are now offering cautious optimism. Forecasts are increasingly aligned in showing a weather system arriving from the Pacific Northwest within the next two weeks. Early impacts could include rain at higher elevations, but colder air later in the pattern may turn that precipitation into snow.

Looking toward Christmas week, conditions could line up for a more significant storm. While exact totals remain uncertain, even conservative scenarios suggest measurable snowfall, and wetter models hint at the potential for much more. For now, forecasters say confidence is growing—and the door is still open for a late-December turnaround.