California Starts New Water Year With Cautious 10% Allocation

California is kicking off its annual water planning season with a conservative outlook, announcing an initial 10% allocation from the State Water Project (SWP) for 2025. The early estimate—released each December—helps water agencies plan for the year ahead, and this low starting point reflects current conditions, reservoir levels, and the possibility of a dry winter.

The State Water Project supplies drinking water to 27 million Californians and irrigation for 750,000 acres of farmland, making the initial allocation a key part of California’s water strategy.

“Recent history has shown us that anything can happen during a California winter, so it’s important that our early season allocation is conservative,” said Department of Water Resources Director Karla Nemeth.

Despite the cautious number, the state’s water year is off to a solid start. Recent storms have boosted reservoirs to 114% of average, and Lake Oroville—the SWP’s largest reservoir—is sitting at 100% of average for this time of year.

A 10% opening allocation is actually double what the state announced at the start of last year, when early dryness gave way to heavy midwinter precipitation that ultimately allowed the allocation to jump to 50%. DWR says low early percentages often increase dramatically as the season unfolds.

Officials will update the allocation monthly as they monitor snowpack, rainfall, and runoff. California’s wettest months are still ahead, though long-range forecasts show mixed signals: parts of Northern and Central California have equal chances of a wet or dry winter, while others lean drier than normal.

The final allocation is typically set in late spring. Until then, the state is preparing for all possibilities—hoping for storms but planning cautiously.