El Niño Could Return This Summer. Here’s What It Might Mean for California.

A familiar climate pattern that can reshape weather around the world may soon return. New forecasts show that El Niño conditions could develop in the Pacific Ocean later this year, potentially influencing California’s weather next winter.

According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, there is currently a 62% chance that El Niño forms between June and August and continues through the end of 2026. Meanwhile, the La Niña pattern that dominated this past winter is expected to fade in the coming weeks.

El Niño is part of a larger climate cycle known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During El Niño events, weakened trade winds allow warmer-than-normal ocean water to spread across parts of the tropical Pacific. Its opposite phase, La Niña, typically features stronger winds and cooler ocean temperatures. These shifts tend to occur every two to seven years and can influence weather patterns across the globe.

In California, El Niño has often been associated with wetter winters, particularly in Southern California, though forecasters caution that the connection is far from guaranteed.

Meteorologists say ENSO is only one factor that shapes seasonal weather in the state. Other atmospheric patterns can strengthen, weaken, or completely override the effects typically associated with El Niño or La Niña.

The past winter offered a good example. Although La Niña conditions were present, rainfall patterns did not perfectly match the typical expectations across the region.

For now, California is expected to see warmer and drier-than-average conditions through May. If El Niño does develop this summer, early projections suggest about a one-in-three chance it could become a strong event, though scientists stress that forecasts months in advance remain uncertain.

In other words, the Pacific may be shifting again, but it’s still too early to know exactly what it will mean for Northern California’s next winter.