Experts Say a Major Northern California Earthquake Is Coming—Here’s How to Get Ready

California’s next major earthquake isn’t a matter of if—it’s when.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), there’s a 72% chance that the San Francisco Bay Area will experience a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake by 2043. There’s also a 51% chance of a magnitude 7 event and a 20% chance of an even larger 7.5 or greater. With nearly 40 known faults stretching from Napa to Monterey, the region is one of the most seismically vulnerable in the country.

In December, a magnitude 7.0 quake struck off California’s sparsely populated northern coast, triggering tsunami warnings across the West Coast. Dozens of aftershocks followed. While no major damage was reported, scientists say a similar quake on land—especially in a densely populated area—would have had far more serious consequences.

History provides stark reminders: the 1906 San Francisco earthquake killed around 3,000 people and destroyed 80% of the city. The 1989 Loma Prieta quake caused $10 billion in damage and disrupted the World Series. More recently, the 2014 Napa earthquake injured hundreds and caused over $1 billion in damage.

Experts say the key to surviving a major quake is preparation:

• During shaking: Drop, Cover, and Hold On—don’t run.
• Secure heavy furniture and appliances.
• Keep an emergency kit with water, food, and phone chargers.
• Have a family meeting plan and designate a safe place to reunite.
• Text, don’t call, during emergencies to preserve network capacity.
• Consider purchasing earthquake insurance and downloading early warning apps.

Huge earthquakes are rare, but the risk is real. The best time to prepare is before it hits—because once it starts shaking, it’s already too late.