When Will Snow Fall on Tahoe Again? Long Term Forecasts Look Disappointing

Tahoe’s early-season snow season is off to a sluggish start, with no measurable snowfall in more than 10 days and none expected for at least another week. Forecast models show dry weather dominating through Friday, Dec. 12, leaving the region stuck in what appears to be a three-week dry spell that began around Nov. 22.

Ski resorts, however, are doing everything they can to salvage conditions. Overnight temperatures have dipped just enough to allow snowmaking from top to bottom at most mountains, and webcams around the lake show resorts firing their snow guns nonstop. Snowmaking conditions will fluctuate throughout the week — marginal early on, briefly favorable midweek, and then poor again by the weekend as warmer Pacific air returns.

By Thursday, temperatures are expected to climb back into the 40s, with lower elevations nearing 50 degrees through the weekend. Skies will stay partly to mostly sunny, and those warmer temperatures may linger into next week, even overnight. That could delay any meaningful cooldown needed for sustained snowmaking.

Resorts that haven’t opened yet hope to create enough manmade coverage to launch limited operations by the end of the week, but natural snow is still badly needed.

Looking beyond Dec. 12, long-range models suggest storms might arrive closer to mid-month. But forecasts more than 10 days out fall into what meteorologists call the “Fantasy Range,” where trends become highly speculative. There is at least one hopeful sign: the Madden-Julian Oscillation — a major tropical weather pattern that can influence West Coast storms — could shift into a more active phase later in December, potentially steering moisture toward the Sierra.

For now, the Tahoe region waits, hoping mid-December finally brings winter back.