New Evacuation Simulations Highlight Tahoe’s Dangerous Traffic Bottlenecks During Wildfires
A new study has revealed alarming evacuation times for the Tahoe Basin in the event of a wildfire emergency.
The simulations, released on Wednesday by the nonprofit Tahoe Clean Air, indicate that evacuating residents and tourists could take significantly longer—two to three times more—than current official estimates, leading to “hours-long, potentially life-threatening slow evacuations.”
The simulations, funded by Tahoe Clean Air founder Doug Flaherty, used AI technology and expertise from seasoned wildfire professionals, including those who managed the 2018 Camp Fire. The study modeled over 400 scenarios to identify the potential bottlenecks and challenges facing evacuation efforts in Tahoe.
For instance, evacuating Incline Village, a heavily visited tourist area, could take over seven hours in optimal conditions. In more challenging scenarios, like road closures on State Route 28 or Highway 267, evacuation times could stretch to more than 13 hours.
Flaherty, who spent $100,000 on the study, emphasizes that this citizen-led effort is aimed at preventing a disaster on the scale of the Camp Fire or the recent Lahaina fire in Hawaii. “We’re trying to raise awareness and push for transparent, data-driven evacuation planning,” he says.
Local and regional agencies, such as the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA) and Washoe County, currently have evacuation plans, but Flaherty argues they are outdated and underestimate the potential for gridlock. Washoe County’s current plan, for example, does not account for visitors, background traffic, or road closures, factors which can significantly affect evacuation times.
The simulations have sparked a call for better emergency planning. Flaherty and other Tahoe residents, believe local agencies are prioritizing tourism over safety. They believe that thousands of visitors in Tahoe are often unaware of the region’s evacuation protocols, complicating emergency response efforts.
Further simulations and details will be released next month at TahoeCleanAir.org, providing more data for policymakers to consider. The hope is that these findings will encourage a more comprehensive and realistic approach to evacuation planning in the Tahoe Basin.
